The challenges facing small and medium-sized states in an increasingly fragmented international environment were at the center of the panel discussion “Small State Survival in an Era of Great Power Competition: Red Lines, Deterrence Collapse, and the Unraveling of Order,” held within the framework of the Yerevan Dialogue 2026 and co-hosted by the Observer Research Foundation.
The session was moderated by Liliana Śmiech, Director General for International Affairs of the Ludovika University of Public Service of Hungary, and featured Albin Kurti, Mehdi Jomaa, Former Prime Minister of Tunisia, Werner Fasslabend, President of the Austrian Institute für European and Security Policy of Austria, Malgorzata Bonikowska, Representative of the Centre for International Relations of Poland, and Per Olsson Fridh, Director General of the Folke Bernadotte Academy of Sweden.
Participants examined the gradual erosion of the rules-based international system and its implications for state sovereignty, particularly for smaller states that have traditionally relied on international law and multilateral institutions. The discussion explored whether effective deterrence mechanisms can be restored in an environment marked by declining institutional credibility and intensifying geopolitical competition.
Particular attention was devoted to the future viability of international law within an increasingly multipolar system, as well as to potential adaptive strategies available to smaller states, including regional cooperation, diversified partnerships, and technological innovation. Participants also discussed the consequences of weakening deterrence and the growing tendency to challenge established red lines in international relations.
The discussion underscored that the future of the international order will largely depend on balancing evolving power dynamics with normative frameworks, as well as on the ability of smaller states to navigate a global environment in which both legal norms and enforcement mechanisms face increasing pressure.
